The foreclosure rate in Lee County in November slowed to levels last seen more than two years ago as the real estate boom’s glut of heavily financed, inexpensive homes finally burns itself out.
But commercial properties and more expensive homes could fuel a new wave of foreclosures – perhaps not as many but at much higher values per property. The number of foreclosures filed in Lee County fell in November to 1,404 from 1,628 in October, according to statistics released Tuesday by the Southwest Florida Real Estate Investment Association.
It was the lowest number since 1,220 were filed in September 2007. A year ago, 1,681 foreclosures were filed for November, the report states.
Jeff Tumbarello, director of the association, noted that 64 percent of homes bought now in the county are strictly cash deals, so eventually “the foreclosure trend has to end.”
For the most part, national lenders are the ones foreclosing now, he said. “The local community banks are all out and the regionals have largely disappeared.”
That doesn’t mean the coast is clear, however.
More commercial properties are showing up in foreclosure now and more expensive homes are still falling in value even as the less expensive ones stabilize in price, Tumbarello said. “Homes above $400,000 are taking a horrific beating.”
That has caused concern that, with unemployment at high levels, more people will walk away from the more expensive homes as they fall in price, or simply run out of money to keep paying their mortgage.
“We have to wait and see if this is really a petering out of the foreclosures or just the eye of the storm,” said Brad Hunter, who directs Metrostudy’s market research operations in Southwest Florida.
Builders are not out of the ballgame completely now, although they’re having trouble competing with cheap foreclosed houses being put back on the market by lenders, he said.
But a completely new house comes with a warranty and without the risks of issues such as Chinese drywall, Hunter said.
Tim Rose, president of Arthur Rutenberg Homes in Lee County, said he expects the recovery for builders to be slow but inevitable as the inventory of existing homes is bought up.
Already, he said, “You find very few new homes in inventory that are terrific deals” and some people are learning the hard way that a foreclosed house can come with expensive problems.
Charlie Green, clerk of court in Lee County, said the dropping rate of foreclosures is welcome, but that it likely won’t be over soon. “I think we’re going to see 1,200 to 1,600 a month for a while.”
The court system still has a backlog of 21,000, down from the peak of about 23,000 about a year ago. So-called “rocket dockets” of mass foreclosure hearings by judges have helped grind away at that number, he said.
Green said he’s optimistic for the long run.
“We’ll see an in-migration of people who will use up this inventory,” he predicts. “I think it’s people who can afford to move here. In 2005 they couldn’t. Now they can.”